Survey of 94 Economists Projects AI Gains Spreading Across G20 Nations Over Next Decade

A survey of 94 economists conducted for the Financial Times reveals that a majority expect the economic benefits of artificial intelligence to extend beyond the United States and China. According to the poll, 54 percent of respondents believe these gains will spread across the broader G20 economies over the next decade.

The data indicates a shift in expectations regarding global technology distribution. Rather than concentrating solely on the two largest economies, the surveyed experts see a wider diffusion of AI-driven growth. This perspective challenges the narrative that AI advantages are strictly limited to established tech superpowers, suggesting a more distributed impact on global economic structures.

Distribution of AI Growth

The Financial Times report highlights that the poll points to benefits reaching far beyond the US and China. The 54 percent majority view suggests that G20 nations other than the leading two will capture significant value from AI integration. This distribution implies that mid-sized and developing economies within the G20 framework may experience notable productivity improvements.

The survey results indicate a broad consensus among the 94 economists that the technology's economic footprint will expand geographically. This expansion is projected to occur within the next ten years. The source material does not provide further details on specific national leaders within this secondary wave of adoption.

Regional Disparities and Concerns

Despite the optimism regarding G20 spread, the survey identifies specific regions at risk of exclusion. According to the source material, 32 individual economists in the poll see African countries falling behind in the AI landscape. This count represents a significant minority of the 94 respondents who are concerned about a widening digital divide.

The distinction between the 54 percent expecting G20 spread and the 32 economists concerned about Africa highlights uneven global development. While the G20 may see broad benefits, the poll suggests that non-G20 regions, particularly in Africa, face challenges in keeping pace. The Financial Times summary explicitly notes this divergence, pointing to the specific count of economists holding this view.

What should you do?

Security and technology professionals should monitor how AI adoption rates vary across different global markets. Understanding these disparities helps in assessing supply chain risks and vendor stability in emerging economies. Organizations should also evaluate their own AI strategies against these broader economic trends to ensure resilience.

What to do and how to stay safe: Artificial Intelligence

• Review global vendor landscapes to identify dependencies on regions that may lag in AI infrastructure development.
• Assess internal AI implementation plans against projected G20 economic shifts to align with stable growth markets.
• Monitor policy developments in African nations and other non-G20 regions for potential regulatory or market disruptions.
• Consult with economic analysts to understand how AI-driven productivity gains might impact international trade partners.

Step-by-step guide: Prompt Injection Warning Signs: How to Spot AI Manipulation

General security guidance from the Threat Times newsroom. It is not confirmed advice from the organisations named in this story.

Frequently asked questions

What percentage of economists expect AI gains to spread across the G20?

According to the Financial Times survey, 54 percent of the 94 economists expect AI gains to spread across the G20 over the next decade.

How many economists believe African countries will fall behind?

The survey indicates that 32 individual economists see African countries falling behind in AI adoption, not 32 percent.

Which regions are expected to benefit most from AI according to the poll?

The poll suggests benefits will reach far beyond the US and China, spreading across the wider G20 economies over the next decade.