Polymarket blocked accounts after $285 million in manipulated Ethiopian election trades
Forensic analysis reveals that nearly all trading volume on losing candidates originated from coordinated pairs of accounts engaging in wash trading.
Key points
- Over $285 million in trading volume occurred on Polymarket for Ethiopian elections, with $284 million linked to coordinated accounts.
- Only $173,000 was wagered on the actual winner, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, while $41 million targeted his chief of staff.
- Polymarket stated it flagged the activity, investigated, and blocked the accounts, though it did not explain the delay in action.
Polymarket blocked specific accounts after investigators determined that approximately $284 million in trading volume on its platform was generated by coordinated pairs of users buying and selling contracts with each other. This activity occurred within markets for the Ethiopian federal elections, where the outcome was effectively settled long before the bulk of the trading took place.
The total trading volume for the Ethiopian election markets exceeded $285 million, a figure that far surpasses typical political market activity. According to Chris Park, a former Polymarket trader who now runs the forensic analysis firm MSR Decode, nearly all of this volume came from these repetitive transactions between paired accounts. The trades focused heavily on long-shot candidates who ultimately did not win, distorting the apparent interest in the election results.
Context and Background
In the Ethiopian federal elections held this summer, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s Prosperity Party secured a decisive victory, winning 438 parliamentary seats. This result paved the way for Ahmed to serve another five-year term, while his closest competitor won only 13 seats. Despite this clear outcome, trading patterns on prediction markets deviated sharply from historical norms where volume typically tracks with the probability of an outcome.
Rajiv Sethi, an economics professor at Barnard College who researches prediction markets, described the high volume of seemingly pointless back-and-forth transactions as an obvious form of volume manipulation. Prediction market boosters often tout platforms like Polymarket as barometers of public opinion or "truth machines" that offer clearer pictures than polling data. However, this incident highlights how trading activity can tell perplexing stories that do not reflect genuine public sentiment or forecasting accuracy.
Who Is Affected
The manipulation primarily affected the integrity of the data recorded on Polymarket’s offshore platform. While Kalshi beat many pollsters in forecasting the 2024 US presidential race, the Ethiopian market data became unreliable due to the artificial inflation of volume. Shana Bautista, Polymarket’s head of global intelligence and investigations, told WIRED that the team immediately flagged the activity, investigated, and blocked the accounts from trading.
Polymarket did not respond to follow-up questions regarding why the accounts were able to execute such a high volume of trades before the platform took action. The timing of these trades, which continued long after the election outcomes were settled, raised eyebrows among experts. The sheer scale of the manipulation, involving over $285 million in volume, underscores the challenges prediction markets face in distinguishing between genuine speculative interest and coordinated artificial activity.
What should you do?
Security and technology professionals should monitor prediction market data for anomalies that deviate from historical norms, such as disproportionate volume on unlikely outcomes. Organizations using these platforms for intelligence should verify data integrity by cross-referencing with independent sources. Users should be aware that high trading volume does not necessarily indicate consensus or accuracy.
What to do and how to stay safe: Polymarket
- Monitor prediction market data for unusual volume spikes on long-shot candidates that do not align with real-world events or polling data.
- Verify the integrity of data from offshore prediction platforms by cross-referencing with independent news sources and official election results.
- Review account activity for patterns of wash trading, such as repeated buys and sells between paired accounts, which may indicate manipulation.
- Stay informed about platform enforcement actions and updates regarding blocked accounts or changes to trading rules that may affect data reliability.
Step-by-step guide: Mobile Device Security: How to Protect Data Beyond Passwords
General security guidance from the Threat Times newsroom. It is not confirmed advice from the organisations named in this story.
Frequently asked questions
How much money was involved in the manipulated Ethiopian election trades on Polymarket?
The total trading volume exceeded $285 million, with approximately $284 million attributed to coordinated pairs of accounts engaging in wash trading.
Did Polymarket take action against the accounts involved in the manipulation?
Yes, Polymarket stated that it flagged the activity, investigated the accounts, and blocked them from trading, though it did not explain the delay in action.
Who identified the manipulation in the Ethiopian election markets?
Chris Park, a former Polymarket trader who runs the forensic analysis firm MSR Decode, identified that nearly all the volume came from pairs of accounts repeatedly trading with each other.
