Analysts Project Apple Gains Share Amid Global Smartphone Market Drop
GF Securities forecasts Apple as the sole major vendor to grow shipments in 2026, despite industry-wide declines driven by rising memory costs and production constraints.
Key points
- Apple is projected to ship 257 million units in 2026, a 4% increase, while the global market shrinks by 14.2%.
- iPhone Duo production is cut from 7 million to 6 million units due to hinge constraints, with delays into 2027.
- iPhone 18 Pro builds are reduced to 72 million units, citing adjustable-aperture camera issues and lukewarm reception.
GF Securities analysts Jeff Pu and Henry Huang project that Apple will be the only major smartphone manufacturer to increase its shipment volume in 2026. This forecast appears in an investor note released this week, positioning the company for a 4% year-over-year growth to 257 million units. The global smartphone market, by contrast, is expected to contract significantly.
The analysts anticipate a 14.2% decline in total global shipments, dropping to 1.08 billion units for the year. Apple’s market share is projected to rise to 24% in 2026, up from 20% in 2025 and 19% in 2024. Samsung is expected to remain second with 241 million units, largely unchanged from the previous year.
Production Constraints and Market Headwinds
The broader industry faces one of its most challenging periods between 2026 and 2027. According to the report, sharply higher memory prices are the primary driver, forcing original equipment manufacturers to reduce shipment volumes and raise device prices. IDC and Counterpoint Research have also highlighted the impact of these rising costs on sales figures in recent weeks.
Apple faces specific hardware challenges that are curbing its growth potential. The iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max have received a lukewarm reception, partly due to competition from the new iPhone Duo and criticism regarding their weight. Consequently, analysts have lowered the build plan for the Pro lineup to 72 million units.
The reduction in Pro builds is attributed to constraints associated with the adjustable-aperture camera technology. Meanwhile, the iPhone Duo, Apple’s first foldable iPhone, is also facing production hurdles. The EMS build plan for the Duo was reduced from 7 million to 6 million units in 2026 due to hinge-related issues.
Supply Delays and Stock Outlook
The iPhone Duo went up for pre-order earlier today, but supply constraints are already affecting delivery timelines. As Threat Times reported on October 18, 2026, Apple’s first foldable iPhone faces immediate supply constraints, with delivery estimates slipping into next year shortly after preorders opened. Current estimates show deliveries stretching into late January in the US and even further in other international markets.
Despite Apple’s projected growth relative to competitors, GF Securities maintained a “Hold” rating on the company’s stock. The firm set a price target of $369, reflecting the mixed outlook of market share gains against broader industry headwinds and internal production bottlenecks.
What should you do?
Monitor official delivery estimates for new device pre-orders, as supply constraints can push timelines significantly. Review your current device’s lifecycle status to determine if waiting for a new model is cost-effective given potential delays. Track carrier pricing changes for new features, as costs may increase alongside hardware upgrades.
What to do and how to stay safe: Apple
- Check manufacturer websites for accurate, updated delivery windows before placing pre-orders for new foldable or pro-tier devices.
- Evaluate whether current hardware meets your security and functionality needs to avoid paying premium prices for delayed releases.
- Monitor carrier announcements for fee changes related to new operating system features or handoff capabilities.
- Review annual replacement cycles to align purchases with periods of higher production availability and lower costs.
Step-by-step guide: Mobile Device Security: How to Protect Data Beyond Passwords
General security guidance from the Threat Times newsroom. It is not confirmed advice from the organisations named in this story.
Frequently asked questions
Will Apple increase its smartphone shipments in 2026?
Yes, GF Securities projects Apple will ship 257 million units, a 4% increase from the previous year.
What is causing the decline in the global smartphone market?
The market is expected to shrink by 14.2% primarily due to sharply higher memory prices forcing price hikes.
Why was iPhone Duo production reduced?
The build plan was lowered from 7 million to 6 million units in 2026 due to hinge constraints.
