New Constructs calls Anthropic IPO 'ridiculous', values firm at $144bn
Research firm New Constructs argues Anthropic's $2tn IPO target is unrealistic, citing high costs and open-source competition in its latest report.
Key points
- New Constructs values Anthropic at $144bn, far below the reported $2tn target.
- The firm states Anthropic would need unsustainable growth and margins to justify the target.
- High token costs for Claude models compared to competitors are cited as a barrier.
Independent research firm New Constructs has labeled Anthropic’s planned public offering as “the most ridiculous IPO of 2026,” according to a report published on 6 October. The firm argues that the AI developer’s equity is worth as little as $144bn, a figure that stands 93 percent below the $2tn valuation Anthropic is reportedly seeking from investors.
The report, titled “Anthropic Is The Most Ridiculous IPO of 2026,” describes the listing as an “unprecedented test of investor gullibility.” New Constructs, which sells stock research to investors, used a reverse discounted cash flow model to determine that the company’s current financial trajectory does not support the massive market cap. This analysis comes after Anthropic told investors its third-quarter revenue reached $16.8bn, with Bloomberg reporting the listing could occur as early as mid-November.
Financial projections and valuation gaps
To justify a $2tn valuation, New Constructs calculates that Anthropic would need to achieve a 10 percent after-tax operating margin immediately and maintain it for ten years. The firm notes that Anthropic’s 2025 operating margin is currently minus 175 percent. Additionally, revenue would need to grow 1,000 percent this year, 100 percent in 2027, and 56 percent annually from 2028 to 2035.
Under that scenario, Anthropic’s after-tax operating profit would reach $358bn in 2035. The report states this would be 2.0 times NVIDIA’s $184bn profit and 2.6 times Apple’s $136bn trailing profit. Total revenue would hit $3.6tn, which is about 1.4 times the combined trailing revenue of Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta, and Oracle.
Competitive pressures and methodology
The $144bn figure represents New Constructs’ lowest scenario, assuming margins improve to 20 percent over ten years and growth slows to 20 percent annually from 2028. In this case, Anthropic would generate $89bn in after-tax operating profit in 2035, matching Meta’s recent twelve-month profit. A middle-case scenario with 36 percent annual growth yields a $1.1tn valuation, still 43 percent below the target.
The report argues that open-source models hinder profitability for closed models. It claims Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 cost about 18 times more than DeepSeek R1 for input tokens and 23 times more for output tokens. New Constructs stated it has not seen the confidentially filed prospectus and relied on reports of leaked financials.
Market context and analyst record
New Constructs has a mixed record on major listings. CNBC reported that the firm called WeWork’s offering the most ridiculous of 2019, six weeks before the company pulled its IPO. Its 2020 pick, DoorDash, has remained a stable public company. Anthropic did not respond to CNBC’s requests for comment. PitchBook senior analyst Harrison Rolfes ran multiples on the data on 5 October.
This financial scrutiny occurs as Anthropic continues its broader research initiatives, including the $15M commitment to math-AI research with the Simons Foundation and OpenAI, as Threat Times reported on 15 October 2026.
What should you do?
Investors and analysts should monitor the confidential filing for verified financial data rather than relying solely on leaked figures. Technology professionals should track how open-source model pricing impacts enterprise adoption of proprietary AI tools. Security teams should remain aware that high-cost models may influence which vendors organizations choose for sensitive workloads.
What to do and how to stay safe: Anthropic
- Review official SEC filings once Anthropic’s prospectus becomes public to verify revenue and margin claims.
- Compare the total cost of ownership for proprietary AI models against open-source alternatives for your organization.
- Monitor analyst reports from multiple firms to balance New Constructs’ bearish view with other market perspectives.
- Assess whether current AI vendor contracts include clauses that protect against drastic valuation or service changes.
Step-by-step guide: Prompt Injection Warning Signs: How to Spot AI Manipulation
General security guidance from the Threat Times newsroom. It is not confirmed advice from the organisations named in this story.
Frequently asked questions
What valuation does New Constructs assign to Anthropic?
New Constructs values Anthropic at $144bn in its lowest scenario, which is 93 percent below the reported $2tn target.
Why does New Constructs believe the $2tn target is unrealistic?
The firm states that achieving that value would require Anthropic to maintain a 10 percent operating margin for a decade and grow revenue at unsustainable rates.
How do Anthropic's model costs compare to competitors?
The report claims Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 cost 18 to 23 times more than DeepSeek R1 for input and output tokens.
